DRAFT ABSTRACTS: RESEARCH
ARTICLES
Mapping the Dynamics of Climate
Negotiations
Tommaso Venturini, Jean-Philippe Cointet, Nicolas Baya-Laffite, Ian
Gray, and Vinciane Zabban, médialab, SciencesPo, FR
The advent of digital traces and tools capable of mapping these traces
is bringing about a profound renewal in the social sciences. Thanks to these
tools' abilities to handle vast quantities of data without reducing their
quality through aggregation, emerging digital methods promise to overcome the
classic gap between qualitative and quantitative methods.
For this promise to be fulfilled, however, three major
misunderstandings about the nature of digital methods should be resolved: 1) a
conception of digital traces by many social scientists that is both too narrow
(in terms of their sources) and too ambitious (in terms of their
representativeness); 2) an alternation between disregard and paranoia about the
conditions of production of digital traces; 3) the tendency to confuse the
digital and automatic.
In this article the advantages and the misunderstandings of the
methodological shift triggered by digital mapping will be discussed through the
case study of international negotiations about climate change. Though these
negotiations are crucially important for the future of our societies and though
they are thoroughly transcribed and made available on the Web, traceability
does not necessarily guarantee legibility. Despite the availability of data,
following the dynamics of the climate debate remains a challenge. How to make
sense of 20 years of negotiations (and thousands of lines of transcriptions)
while remaining sensible to the single diplomatic moves that might have steered
the negotiations?
In this article, we discuss the efforts we deployed to 1) extract the
dynamic network of actors and arguments mobilized in the negotiations convened
under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and
2) provide a qualitative-quantitative map of the debate, capable of zooming-out
on the major trends and coalitions over 20 years of negotiations and zooming-in
on actor specific statements made during particular sessions of the UNFCCC
Conference of Parties (COP).
Bigger and better, or more of
the same? Emerging practices and perspectives on big data analysis in economics
Linnet Taylor, University of Amsterdam, NL and Ralph Schroeder and Eric Meyer, Oxford Internet Institute
(OII), UK
Although the terminology of big data has so far gained little traction
in economics, the availability of unprecedentedly rich datasets and the need
for new approaches – both epistemological and computational – to deal with them
is an emerging issue for the discipline. Using interviews conducted with a
cross-section of economists, this paper examines perspectives on ‘big data’
across the discipline, the new types of data being used by researchers on
economic issues, and the range of responses to this opportunity amongst
economists. First we offer an overview of the geographic, professional and
disciplinary networks that govern how big data is accessed and used by
economists. Next, we outline the areas in which it is being used, including the
prediction and ‘nowcasting’ of economic trends; mapping and predicting
influence in the context of marketing; and acting as a cheaper or more accurate
substitute for existing types of data such as censuses or labour market data.
We then analyse the broader current and potential contributions of big data to
economics, such as the ways in which econometric methodology is being used to
shed light on questions beyond economics, how big data is improving or changing
economic models, and the kinds of collaborations arising around big data
between economists and other disciplines.
DRAFT ABSTRACTS: COMMENTARY
Official Statistics and Big Data
Peter Struijs, Barteld Braaksma and Piet Daas, Statistics Netherlands,
NL
The advent of Big Data is expected to have a big impact for
organisations for which the production and analysis of information is core
business. National Statistical Institutes (NSIs) are such organisations. They
are responsible for official statistics, which are heavily used by policy
makers and other key players in society. The way they take up big data will
eventually influence all of society.
This contribution describes the changing position of NSIs in the age of
Big Data. Up to, say, 1980, data was a scarce commodity. Official statistical
information based on survey data had a unique value: there simply was no
alternative. In the last couple of decades, more and more public
administrations have started to systematically collect data. Statistical data
collection by means of questionnaires was supplemented and partially replaced
by the use of administrative data sources. The information provided by NSIs
remained unique. In particular the possibility to combine data from different
sources made official statistics even more valuable, since in many countries no
other organisation was positioned to do so. However, Big Data is going to
change that as both individuals and businesses start to create huge amounts of
data.
Big Data sources create a number of opportunities for NSIs. There is a
huge potential for new statistics. Location data for mobile phones could be
used for almost instantaneous daytime population and tourism statistics. Social
media messages could be used for several types of indicators, such as an early
indicator of consumer confidence. Inflation figures could be derived from price
information on the web. And so on. In addition, Big Data sources may be used to
substitute or supplement more traditional data sources, such as questionnaires and
administrative data sources, for already existing statistics.
The use of Big Data for official statistics, however, poses a number of
challenges to NSIs. An obvious one is handling unusually large data sets. This
may induce new forms of cooperation with data providers, IT vendors and
academia, and change training needs. Changes in methods may require different
skills and a different mindset. Other issues concern privacy, confidentiality
and data security, which have recently gained weight by the increased public
awareness that intelligence agencies are among the most active Big Data users.
Even more important for NSIs is the change of their position.
Businesses have already started to produce information similar to what is
traditionally provided by official statistical institutes, and they may become
able to address new and existing statistical users’ needs. However, the
institutional position of NSIs and their traditional values can still be a
strength. NSIs are trusted parties that put a lot of effort into sound
methodologies, quality control and privacy protection. By exploiting these values
they can give an independent, professional judgement on the quality of
information provided by other parties. Moreover, they have unique data
collection opportunities including special access to administrative data
sources. This could be extended to Big Data sources.
The future of official statistics in the age of Big Data is still hazy,
but it is clear that the international statistical community needs to adapt to
the new reality and react to the opportunities and challenges it provides. More
collaboration will be needed among players inside and outside that community.
As this contribution will show, there are already many activities going on and
many national and international initiatives have been launched. For official
statistics, the Big Data era is a most exciting time.